Your Buyer's Playbook for Orange County This Fall

Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing titled the newest report The Buyer's Playbook because the buyer who knows the numbers negotiates from strength. Right now there are 4,939 homes on the market, about 4 percent more than a year ago, which means more choices and far less of the frantic competition we saw in the spring.

The overall Expected Market Time is 101 days. In plain terms, homes are taking a little longer to sell, and that gives you time to see a property twice, run your numbers, and write a thoughtful offer instead of a rushed one. That breathing room is one of the most underrated advantages a buyer can have.

The list price story is telling. In August, 52 percent of closed sales sold below the asking price, with a median of about $32,500 off after roughly a month on the market. That is a real shift from the frenzy years. Keep in mind that 30 percent of sales still closed above asking, usually the turnkey homes in top condition, so the play is to move quickly on the sharp listings and negotiate harder on the ones that have been sitting.

Here is where your leverage is strongest. Condos and townhomes sit at 115 days, up from 93 a year ago, so that segment offers the most negotiating room. Detached homes are firmer at 92 days. If you are a first time buyer or you want a lock and leave lifestyle, the attached market is where patience can really pay off right now.

Rates near 7.17 percent are the reason the market is this patient, and that patience is your opening. History says that when rates ease, buyers rush back in and competition returns quickly. You can always refinance a rate down the road, but you cannot go back and buy at today's price if values keep inching up. Prices are stable and holding, not falling, so you can buy with confidence rather than trying to time a bottom.

Even the upper end is worth a look. Homes priced from $2.5 million to $4 million now sit around 106 days, so patient move up buyers still have room to negotiate even as luxury demand runs about 16 percent above last year.

If you want to see what your options look like in your price range and neighborhood, let's talk. I will show you exactly where the leverage is so you can move with confidence when the right home shows up.