Orange County Real Estate: The June 2026 Halftime Report

We are at the midpoint of 2026, and the Orange County housing market looks a lot like 2025, with a few important differences. Here is everything you need to know heading into summer.

The Big Picture: Not Much Has Changed Since 2023

That is actually the headline. Buyer demand has been essentially frozen for three years, stuck between 1,595 and 1,678 pending sales depending on the month. This June it sits at 1,637, almost identical to 1,633 last year and 1,640 in 2024. The culprit is no mystery: affordability.

As long as mortgage rates stay above 6.5 percent, do not expect demand to break higher. After nearly dropping into the 5s in late February, before the Iran conflict pushed rates back up, they now sit at 6.68 percent per Mortgage News Daily, and the expectation is they will stay elevated for the rest of 2026.

Inventory: Rising, But Still Below Last Year

Active listings increased by 76 homes in the past two weeks, up 2 percent, to 4,551, the highest level since last September. That sounds like a lot, but here is the context: last year at this time there were 4,645 homes on the market, 2 percent more than today. And the pre COVID three year average was 6,501, a full 43 percent higher than current levels.

For the first time since March 2024, there are actually fewer homes on the market year over year. After starting 2026 with 13 percent more listings than 2025, the trend has now flipped. Slightly fewer sellers are coming to market this year than last, driven by the ongoing lock in effect: homeowners sitting tight in their low rate mortgages, unwilling to trade up into today's rates.

Inventory is expected to continue rising until it peaks sometime between July and August, then decline through the rest of the year.

Expected Market Time: 83 Days, Up From 81

With supply ticking up and demand easing, the Expected Market Time, how long it would take to sell every active listing at today's pace, increased from 81 to 83 days in the past two weeks. That is actually slightly faster than last year's 85 days. The pre COVID average was 71 days.

Properly priced homes, especially detached homes below $1.5 million, can still move quickly. It is the overpriced and the overlooked that are driving the averages up.

The Detached vs Condo Divide

This is the most interesting story in the June data. Detached home market time is 76 days, actually faster than the 91 days seen this time last year. Meanwhile, condos and townhomes have slowed to 94 days, up from 77 days last year. The two segments are moving in opposite directions, and the gap is widening.

Closed Sales and Pricing Strength

April closed with 1,886 sales, up 1 percent from April 2025. The sales to list price ratio remains at 100.0 percent. Distressed sales are nearly nonexistent: just 12 distressed homes in the entire county, representing 0.3 percent of active listings. 99.9 percent of sellers closing have equity.

An Elevated Number of Sellers Are Pulling Listings

Through May, 2,939 sellers pulled their homes off the market, 13 percent more than last year and the highest total since the start of the pandemic. This tells you something important: most of these sellers do not have to sell. They are not distressed. They are simply unwilling to lower their price to where the market actually is. When sellers reconnect with current pricing reality, expect more deals to get done.

What This Means for You

Buyers: This is one of the most inventory rich environments you have had in several years, with less competition and room to negotiate, especially on condos and townhomes. If rates drop below 6.5 percent, the calculus changes fast. Acting before that wave arrives has merit.

Sellers: The sellers succeeding right now are priced right on day one. With market time creeping upward through the summer, homes that launch overpriced will sit and get stigmatized. Exceptional presentation and smart pricing from the start are everything.

Questions about your specific neighborhood? I track this data weekly and can give you a precise picture of what is happening on your street.