OC Luxury Market Update: Homes Between $4M to $6M Are Now Sitting for 229 Days

The Orange County luxury market, homes priced above $2.5 million, continued to slow in the June 8 data from Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing. If you are buying or selling at the top of the market, here is the full picture.

The Headline Number: 177 Days

The Expected Market Time for luxury homes above $2.5 million increased from 167 to 177 days in the past two weeks, its slowest reading since January. At this pace, a seller listing today would be looking at becoming a pending sale around December 2026.

That said, context matters: last year at this time, luxury market time was 199 days. Today's 177 days, while slow, is actually faster than where we were in June 2025.

The Breakdown by Price Point

• Homes from $2.5 million to $4 million: 140 days, up from 128 two weeks ago
• Homes from $4 million to $6 million: 229 days, up sharply from 177 two weeks ago
• Homes above $6 million: 239 days, down from 295, the one bright spot

The $4 million to $6 million range is the most challenging segment in the entire Orange County market right now. A market time of 229 days means that at today's pace, a home listed today would not expect to go under contract until early February 2027. That is a meaningful reality check for sellers in this range.

Supply and Demand

Luxury inventory increased from 1,041 to 1,047 homes in the past two weeks, a modest rise. Luxury demand fell by 10 pending sales, down 5 percent, to 177 pending sales. That combination of rising supply and falling demand is what is driving market time higher.

Year over year, luxury inventory is actually down 165 homes, a drop of 14 percent, and luxury demand is down just 6 pending sales, a drop of 3 percent. So relative to last year, the market is tighter, but the weekly trend is moving in the wrong direction for sellers.

What This Means for Luxury Buyers

This is one of the strongest negotiating environments for luxury buyers in recent memory. With homes sitting for five to seven plus months on average, sellers, especially in the $4 million to $6 million range, are increasingly motivated. There is real room to negotiate on price, on closing terms, and on concessions that would have been unthinkable in 2021 and 2022.

If you have been waiting for the right moment to make a move in the luxury space, the data suggests you have more leverage right now than you will if you wait.

What This Means for Luxury Sellers

In a 177 day market, the quality of your launch matters more than almost anything else. Homes that are priced right and presented at the highest level will still sell, sometimes in days. Homes that are overpriced, even by 5 to 7 percent, will sit and accumulate market time, which itself becomes a red flag for future buyers.

Through FirstTeam Real Estate, I have access to Luxury Portfolio International and LuxuryRealEstate.com, reaching qualified buyers in 60 plus countries. That global reach matters when the domestic buyer pool is thin.

If you are considering selling a luxury property in Orange County, let us talk well before you are ready to list. The prep work, pricing strategy, staging, photography, and international marketing, takes time, and the sellers who do it right are the ones who close.