Orange County Housing Falls Into Autumn: A Steady, Balanced Market

Fall has quietly arrived in the Orange County housing market. Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing titled his newest report Falling Into Autumn, and the theme fits. This time of year, both supply and demand tend to ease at a similar pace, which keeps the overall speed of the market fairly steady. That is exactly what the latest numbers show.

There are 4,982 homes actively for sale today, down about 72 homes, or roughly 1 percent, over the past two weeks after peaking near 5,054 in mid August. That is about 2 percent more inventory than a year ago, yet it is still on the lean side. The pre COVID average from 2017 to 2019 was 6,569 homes, so we are running about 1,587 homes, or 32 percent, below a typical fall.

Demand, measured as new pending sales over the past month, is holding at 1,528, essentially flat over the past two weeks and only slightly softer than a year ago. It has cooled from the mid May peak of 1,678, which is completely normal for the season. Mortgage rates near 6.87 percent today, up from 6.53 percent a year ago, are keeping some buyers patient, but steady demand tells me plenty of people are still buying.

The Expected Market Time, the number of days it would take to sell every listing at the current pace, is 98 days. A year ago it was 94 days, so the market is moving at nearly the same speed as last fall. Values remain stable and are holding their ground, which is the headline most owners care about most.

Underneath the surface there are two different stories. Detached homes are still the quicker segment at 90 days, while condos and townhomes improved nicely from 118 to 109 days over the past couple of weeks. The luxury market above $2.5 million is the real standout, with its Expected Market Time falling to 144 days, the fastest reading of the year and the best since February 2025, as luxury demand runs about 44 percent higher than a year ago.

Put simply, this is a balanced, healthy market. Buyers have more room to think and negotiate than they did in the spring, and sellers who price to today's comparable sales are still finding real success. Neither side is being forced to rush, and that is a good thing.

If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific home or your next move, I am happy to walk through it with you. Call or text me anytime at 657.340.0418 and we will map out a plan that fits your timeline.