Orange County Home Values Hit a Plateau: Why Balance Is Good News for Buyers and Sellers

The latest Orange County Housing Report from Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing, dated July 6, 2026, carries a headline worth pausing on: housing values have plateaued. After years of dramatic swings, up 8.2 percent in 2020, 15.2 percent in 2021, and 10.5 percent in 2022, Orange County home values are up a modest 1.2 percent year over year. The market has settled into true balance, not favoring buyers or sellers. In my view, that is healthy, and it is the most predictable market we have had in years.

Here are the core numbers. The active inventory stands at 4,697 homes, nearly unchanged over the past two weeks as sellers paused for the 4th of July holiday. That is 3 percent below last year and a full 43 percent below the pre COVID norm of 6,708 homes. Demand sits at 1,558 pending sales, nearly identical to last year, and the Expected Market Time ticked up from 87 to 90 days. A year ago it was 92 days, so we are actually moving slightly faster than last summer.

Why call it a plateau instead of a slowdown? Values have risen every month reported so far this year, up 0.5 percent in January and February, 0.4 percent in March, 0.1 percent in April, and 0.06 percent in May. The gains are small, but they are gains. Mortgage rates remain the single biggest lever. When rates dipped below 6.5 percent from last September through April, values turned positive. Rates have been stuck above 6.5 percent since mid May, and the market has cooled in response. If rates drift back toward 6 percent, expect demand and values to firm up quickly.

The market remains fundamentally healthy. The sales to list price ratio is holding at 100.0 percent, which means well priced homes are still fetching full asking price. Distressed sales are almost nonexistent, just ten short sales and foreclosures in the entire county, and 99.8 percent of sellers closing escrow have equity. This is nothing like the shaky markets of past cycles.

Detached homes and condos are still running at two speeds. Detached homes sit at an Expected Market Time of 82 days, notably faster than the 97 days we saw a year ago. Condos and townhomes have slowed to 103 days, up from 85 last year. If you own a detached home, you are in the stronger lane. If you are shopping for a condo, you have real room to negotiate right now.

The luxury market quietly improved. Above $2.5 million, inventory is down 17 percent year over year while demand is up 13 percent, and the overall luxury Expected Market Time of 171 days is dramatically faster than last year's 232. The $4 million to $6 million range improved from 267 to 209 days in just two weeks, and the $2.5 million to $4 million range sits at 124 days versus 167 a year ago. Only the segment above $6 million stretched, to 295 days, where patience and precise pricing remain essential.

A balanced market rewards preparation over luck. Sellers who price accurately and present well are still selling at full price, and buyers finally have the time and selection to make thoughtful decisions without panic. If you want to know what this plateau means for your home or your search, reach out any time. Call or text me at 657.340.0418 and I will walk you through the real numbers for your neighborhood.