The Summer Lull Arrives in Orange County: Reading the July 20 Housing Report

The latest Orange County Housing Report from Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing, dated July 20, 2026, is titled The Lull Phase, and that name fits. We have reached the middle of the Summer Market, and the pace has clearly cooled from earlier in the year. Inventory is rising, buyer demand has pulled back, and homes are taking longer to sell. None of that is cause for alarm, but it does change the playbook for both sides.

The active inventory climbed to 5,020 homes, up 323 in just two weeks, a 7 percent jump and the highest level since last July. Even so, that is essentially flat with a year ago, when 5,050 homes were on the market, and it sits 35 percent below the pre COVID norm of 6,776 homes. Supply is growing, but by historical standards it is still on the lean side.

Demand tells the sharper story. New pending sales fell to 1,472 over the past month, down 86, or 6 percent, in two weeks. That is the largest drop of the year and the lowest reading for the middle of July since Steven Thomas began tracking this data in 2004. The main reason is rates: the average 30 year fixed touched 6.55 percent, the highest it has been since last August, and higher rates cool buyer activity every time.

Put rising supply and softer demand together and the Expected Market Time, the number of days it would take to sell every listing at the current pace, stretched from 90 to 102 days. That is the slowest reading outside of the COVID shutdown since January 2019. A year ago it was 96 days, so we are only slightly behind last summer, not falling off a cliff.

Here is the number that keeps this market grounded: the sales to list price ratio held at 99.9 percent. Homes that are priced correctly are still selling for essentially full asking price. Distressed activity is almost nonexistent, with just eight short sales and foreclosures in the entire county, and 99.7 percent of sellers who closed in June had equity. June also produced 1,994 closed sales, up 9 percent from a year ago. This is a healthy market that has simply downshifted, not a troubled one.

For buyers, a 102 day market means time, selection, and room to negotiate without the frenzy of years past. For sellers, it means precision matters more than ever: price to fair market value, present the home beautifully, and you can still sell quickly, since half of June closings went into escrow within the first two weeks.

If you want to know what these numbers mean for your home or your search, I am glad to talk it through. Call or text me anytime at 657.340.0418 and we will look at your specific situation together.