Selling in Orange County: Why the August 17 Report Says Pricing Is Everything

The August 17 Orange County Housing Report from Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing is titled AI Pricing Inaccuracies, and if you are thinking about selling, it is essential reading. More sellers than ever are setting expectations from a Zillow Zestimate or an AI chatbot. The report shows that before a home is listed, the median Zestimate in Orange County can be off by about 6.69 percent, a swing of roughly $133,800 on a $1 million home. Those tools cannot see your upgrades, your condition, or the character of your street. Getting the price right from day one still comes down to a careful look at your actual comparable sales.

And pricing right pays off. The sales to list price ratio held at 99.5 percent, so homes that hit the market at fair value are still selling for essentially full asking. Overprice based on an optimistic algorithm and you risk sitting, then chasing the market down. Price with the data and buyers respond.

Your competition is manageable. There are 5,054 homes on the market, almost identical to the 5,011 available a year ago and 33 percent below the pre COVID norm of 6,723 from 2017 to 2019. You are not selling into a flood of inventory, which keeps a well presented, correctly priced home in a strong position.

Segment matters for your strategy. Detached homes are firm, with the Expected Market Time improving to 87 days, faster than a year ago. Condominiums and townhomes have slowed to 118 days, up from 85 last year, so if you are selling an attached home you need sharper pricing, impeccable presentation, and a willingness to offer terms. Know which lane you are in and plan accordingly.

At the top of the market the trend is encouraging. For homes above $2.5 million, the Expected Market Time improved from 181 to 155 days, its best reading since early May, with demand up 17 percent year over year. Within that, homes from $2.5 million to $4 million came in at 111 days and homes from $4 million to $6 million at 168 days. Luxury moves at its own pace, but the direction is clearly in sellers' favor.

Timing is on your side as well. Demand posted its largest rise since early May, and we are in the last stretch of the Summer Market before inventory naturally thins out in the fall. A correctly priced home listed now meets real, active buyers before the seasonal slowdown.

If you would like an honest, human read on what your home would bring in today's market, not an algorithm's guess, I would be glad to help. Reach out any time and we will map out a pricing and presentation plan together.